Thursday, October 7, 2010

Probabilities...

What chance do I have to win the price of 175 millions at the EuroMillion lottery tomorrow? Probabilities are rather small!!! And since I wouldn't become smarter winning such lottery, I didn't bet. In fact, I already won... the bet I didn't spend!
What are our chances to have an F3F Swiss Championship on Saturday? They are not as small as the EuroMillion lottery, but they are getting smaller and smaller. But that is because there will be some debate tonight whether to postpone it to this Sunday or not.
Forecast Adelboden, 1320 m
 In fact the wind forecasts are not very positive for Saturday. There should be some NE current beginning on Saturday and lasting a few days. Unfortunately, Saturday will be the first day of this trend, the day when it's still not very windy. On Sunday, wind speed increases, maybe up to 30 km/h at well located places, and turns North-East to East. This should be fairly good for the selected slope, and the slope compression may give some good lift.
So the organizer asked if participants would be ready to do it on Sunday. I am in favor of this change, though I do not know if the organization eventually would have to follow specific rules to handle such schedule modification. If there is some FAI expert reading this out there, please do not hesitate to comment!
I really hope we can do it, because I am eager to fly some laps again. Since the Wasserkuppe F3F Open in Germany was canceled due to unfortunate conditions, I've had only 2 hours of flight time... And I'd like to have a chance to see what my new Cyril can do!
F3F in Switzerland, as in many other irregularly windy locations, is not so much tributary of wind conditions, but of pilot flexibility. In my opinion, the best way to organize an event is not to choose a spot, schedule some day and wait to see if wind will show up. It's to have some slope options ready, to choose the day and then to check out the wind forecasts. As soon as the prediction models are good enough (2-3 days), then choose the best suited slope for the competition.
I know such way of organizing could disable some slopes for which special authorizations are needed to fly. But overall, it would give a chance for F3F in Switzerland to evolve from the present situation, where only a few guys are driving crazy distances to participate to some foreign event, to a new F3F competition framework which would give as chance to more local pilots to discover F3F and maybe progress to higher competition levels.
One thing is sure, tomorrow is Friday and I will not win the EuroMillion lottery...
But let's see if we all together win a super nice F3F day on Sunday!!!

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